Hamilton vs Leclerc: The one key difference that will determine which driver comes out on top

Alex Gassman
Lewis Hamilton Charles Leclerc Ferrari

With 2025 shaping up to be an awesome year for F1, I’ve spent some time thinking about the inter-team battle at Ferrari to make my predictions on who is going to come out on top.

If Lewis wants to claim his magical 8th title then first he needs to beat his teammate. Both Hamilton, Leclerc and myself as a championship-winning race driver are keenly aware that’s the first rule in racing; beat the guy on the other side of the garage.

For Lewis to do that, he must expose the one weakness that Leclerc has suffered from over the last few years. And even though the stars are aligning for Hamilton, it’s not going to be easy for him.

Leclerc has been the #1 driver at Ferrari since Vettel left the team and Sainz joined at the start of 2021. Leclerc is quick, there’s no doubt about that. His one-lap pace is sensational and he’s pulled off some great qualifying performances over the last few years. And his wins at Monaco and Monza in 2024 were great, but nobody can overtake at Monaco anyway.

Sainz on a number of occasions however showed him up last year. The Smooth Operator in his farewell tour for Ferrari in 2024, with nothing to lose, put on some masterful drives. 

His win at the Mexican GP was one of sheer dominance. And in those moments when things aren’t going Leclerc’s way you sense the frustration and even desperation in the Monegasque’s voice, both on the team-radio and in the interviews afterwards.

The stats below show that in every worthwhile metric Leclerc got the better of Sainz during their time together at Ferrari. But I think the spotlight shone more brightly on Carlos than Charles in 2024, and I’m sure I’m not the only one who feels that way.

Leclerc vs Sainz Ferrari stats

If Leclerc’s 2024 season was totally dominant and he’d comfortably beaten Sainz on most weekends, he’d be heading in to 2025 feeling confident despite his new teammate being the 7-time champ. But that wasn’t the case.

Here’s the other thing. For all of Leclerc’s pace over a single lap, he has one major weakness. He makes mistakes. Costly mistakes.

He crashed out of the lead of the French GP in 2022. He span out of a podium position at Imola the same year. He binned it in Q3 at the 2023 Miami GP and went off during his final push lap in Q3 at last year’s Austrian GP.

Sometimes those mistakes have been due to the Ferrari’s inferior pace and Leclerc trying to extract absolutely everything, and more, from the car. 

At France in 2022 for example, he was only leading because Verstappen had pitted from the lead and was trying to undercut him. Leclerc knew that so pushed as hard as he could to try and stop the Dutchman coming out ahead after the pitstops, but it all went wrong.

Leclerc’s attitude is to settle for nothing but the best possible result. I admire that. But it has, on occasion, cost him dear.  If the Ferrari is on pace this year then maybe he won’t have to go all-out attack on every lap to make up for it.

But even if the Ferrari is the class of the field he still needs to prove his worth against his teammate, so the pressure will never be off.

So how will he stack up against Lewis? Well for one thing, when Lewis was at his absolute best, he didn’t make mistakes. That could be the difference between the two.

Whilst Charles’ feet are firmly under the Maranello table and he knows how the factory, the team and the car works, it will take time for Lewis to get to that point. And as we’ve already seen at pre-season testing in Barcelona, Lewis’ attempts to get to grips with the Ferrari have already resulted in him having ‘a bit of an off’.

So Charles will start the season with a clear advantage, of that there’s no doubt. But the most important thing for Lewis is finding his mojo. A new environment, a new car and a new challenge may well be just what he needs to bring the spark back. 

Plus he’s reunited with Fred Vasseur who was team manager during Lewis’ 2006 GP2 winning season at the ART Grand Prix team. And to top it off, he’s now back with his physio Angela Cullen who he shared all of his Mercedes success with. The stars are aligning for Lewis. 

My prediction for 2025? Charles will get the better start to the season but Lewis will come good after a handful of races once he’s settled in. That’s when he’ll start piling the pressure on Leclerc who’ll begin to feel the heat and might make one or two more of those costly mistakes.

The Lewis Hamilton fairytale needs an ending. Sealing his 8th title with Ferrari would be the perfect full stop on his incredible career.

Let’s just hope that the FIA right their wrongs from the 2021 finale and look favourably on the Scuderia this year. Did someone call for Ferrari International Assistance…?

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Alex Gassman

I‘m Alex. I write F1 and motorsport travel guides based on my experience as racing driver and full-time motorsport nerd. I’ve traveled the world watching F1 and other racing series.

I started oversteer48 with the aim of helping other motorsport fans who are planning on watching some racing themselves.

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