Max Verstappen is 87% likely to win the 2024 Formula 1 title, calculations predict

Alex Gassman

by Alex Gassman

Max Verstappen

     Image, CC BY-SA 4.0

Max Verstappen won a record 19 of 22 races in the 2023 Formula 1 season, resulting in a dominant year that was mundane for the fans to watch.

We’ve all been hoping that the other teams have worked miracles with their cars during the winter break, to help close the gap and give us some competitive race. But the reality is that based on figures, Max is almost a dead certain to win the title again in 2024.

Bahrain pre-season test performance

As Formula 1 cars hit the track for the first time this year for pre-season testing last week, it was reigning Formula 1 champion Max Verstappen who took to the top of the timesheets at the end of the first day,

He finished the first 8-hours of testing over a second faster than any other drivers, continuing where he left off at the end of the previous season with a dominant drive.

Max didn’t drive on the second day of the 3-day test, but jumped back in the car for a few hours on the third and final day. At the end of day 3 he only finished in fourth place, 0.4 seconds slower than the quickest lap from Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc.

Sandbagging is always a possibility at the pre-season test so we shouldn’t read too much in to the results. But it’s hard ignore the Dutchman’s performance. In his own understated words, the 3 days resulted in a ‘very positive test’ where he ‘learned a lot from the car’.

All the other teams and drivers are putting Max and his Red Bull as the car to beat again this season, and the consensus in the motorsport community is that we could be in for yet another year of monotonous dominance.

But just how likely is Max to win the World Championship this year? Well I’ve crunched some numbers to find out. 

87% probability Max will win the title

Sports betting companies use detailed models and calculations to predict the chance of a particular event occurring.

I’ve looked at the odds that 27 of the biggest sports bet companies are listing for Max Verstappen to win the 2024 F1 drivers’ championship:

The overall likelihood of Max Verstappen winning the 2024 F1 World Championship, averaged over all 27 individual probabilities above, is 87%.

Interestingly, if we go back exactly one year, the probability of Max winning the 2023 championship before the season had started was 78.6%. Again that’s averaged out from the odds the same 27 companies offered.

So after Max’s near whitewash in 2023, everyone’s expecting that he’s even more likely to win the championship this year to make it his fourth title in a row.

What's going to stop him?

Last year Max had double the points of the second place finisher and his teammate Segio Perez. If he’s that dominant again this year then a few DNFs aren’t going to stop him winning the title.

Instead we’ve got our eyes locked firmly on the other teams. A lot of people are focusing on Mercedes, with rumors of them sandbagging heavily in the pre-season test getting our hopes up for their return to form.

If Ferrari can find a little more pace and put their strategy woes to bed once and for all, then they could be in for a challenge too.

Hopefully McLaren can continue their improved form from last season. With two hot-shot drivers in their team, if the car’s good enough then they’ll definitely be challenging the Red Bulls.

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Alex Gassman

I‘m Alex. I write F1 and motorsport travel guides based on my experience as racing driver and full-time motorsport nerd. I’ve traveled the world watching F1 and other racing series.

I started oversteer48 with the aim of helping other motorsport fans who are planning on watching some racing themselves.

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